Market Overview

On Tuesday, July 30, 2024, front‑month cotton futures posted gains ranging from 9 to 64 points, while the deferred month contracts moved lower. The broader commodity backdrop was largely unchanged, with crude oil prices down 51 cents per barrel and the U.S. dollar index holding steady.

Weather Outlook and Crop Development

Forecasts for the coming week indicate a relatively dry spell across major cotton‑growing regions, with only scattered rainfall expected in the Southeast United States. The planting season continues to run ahead of historical norms: by July 28, 87 % of the U.S. cotton acreage had been squared, three percentage points above the long‑term average. Moreover, 54 % of the planted acres were in the boll‑setting stage, surpassing the five‑year average of 46 %. Texas showed particularly strong progress, with 49 % of its acres setting bolls compared with a 38 % average.

Condition Ratings and Index Movements

Overall cotton condition ratings slipped 4 percentage points to 49 % rated good or excellent. The Brugger500 index, a gauge of cotton market health, fell 12 points from the previous week, now standing at 327. State‑level crop ratings also shifted: Texas’s rating dropped 20 points, while Georgia’s improved by 8 points.

Stock Levels and Price Benchmarks

ICE‑reported certified cotton stocks remained unchanged on July 29, with 28,745 bales available. The Cotlook A Index, a key price reference, declined 95 points on the same day, settling at 78.35 cents per pound. The USDA’s Average World Price (AWP) was reduced by 140 points to 55.02 cents per pound, a level that will stay in effect through the upcoming Thursday.

Recent Price Performance

  • December 2024 contract closed at 69.55 cents per pound, up 34 points.
  • March 2025 contract finished at 71.18 cents per pound, gaining 27 points.
  • May 2025 contract ended at 72.40 cents per pound, an increase of 20 points.

Disclosures

The author, Alan Brugler, had no direct or indirect positions in any of the securities mentioned at the time of publication. All data and commentary are provided for informational purposes only. Views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. For further details, see the Barchart Disclosure Policy.