Iran Releases Video of Retaliatory Attacks on US-Linked Vessels

Iranian state broadcasters, including PressTV and the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), aired footage on Saturday depicting what Tehran described as a counter-strike against American-linked assets in the Strait of Hormuz. The release came amid a fresh round of weekend exchanges between the two nations, with Iranian officials asserting that a total of six vessels were hit.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement framing the action as a direct response to perceived US aggression. The IRGC Navy said that US forces, in what it called a "brutal act born of desperation" following the closure of the strait, had attacked three oil tankers belonging to the Islamic Republic. In retaliation, the force claimed its operators targeted three oil tankers navigating what it described as an unauthorized route through the strait, as well as three additional vessels it labeled as affiliated with the United States in separate locations.

Al Jazeera reported breaking news that Iran said several ballistic missiles had been fired at a US aircraft carrier and a Navy destroyer, underscoring the escalating nature of the confrontation.

US Central Command Confirms Destruction of Three Iranian Crude Carriers

US Central Command (CENTCOM) verified on its X account that American forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after the IRGC launched ballistic missiles toward two US Navy warships. The command provided specifics: the crude carrier M/T Downy was permanently disabled off the coast of Kharg Island, and the M/T Stark 1 was struck near the port of Jask. A third vessel, the unladen crude carrier M/T Kylo — also referred to as the "Noxen" — was completely destroyed in the Gulf of Oman after being hit in multiple critical locations. The crew had been ordered to abandon ship before the final blow.

CENTCOM noted that the three tankers formed part of a multibillion-dollar shadow shipping network that finances the IRGC and its regional proxy forces, adding that Iran lacks the means to defend such assets at sea.

CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper issued a pointed warning, telling the IRGC that if it fires on two American ships, the US will impose an even steeper economic penalty by taking out three of its own. He further stated that the US would not hesitate to defend its forces and, if necessary, destroy what he characterized as Iran's limited and exposed oil fleet.

Kharg Island: The Lifeline of Iran's Oil Economy

Iranian state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency, linked to the IRGC, reported early Saturday that several missiles had struck a tanker near Kharg Island, publishing images of black smoke billowing from the vessel. While the broader maritime incident has drawn attention, the location itself is critical: Kharg Island's deepwater terminal handles roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, serving as the primary conduit connecting the country's major onshore fields to global buyers, particularly China. The island also hosts extensive storage facilities, pipeline infrastructure, and loading berths.

Henri Patricot, CFA, a Paris-based energy equity research analyst at UBS, cited Kpler data indicating that crude loadings at major Iranian export terminals, including Kharg, have declined substantially over the course of the six-month conflict. Historical average flows through the island have ranged between 1.5 million and 2 million barrels per day, yet those volumes collapsed to approximately 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August under the US naval blockade. Patricot's data also showed a modest recovery in weekly average crude loadings across other major Gulf producer ports on an ex-Iran basis.

Any kinetic strike — whether through air-delivered munitions or offensive cyber operations — against the island's infrastructure could severely impair what remains of Tehran's largest source of hard currency.

Market Implications and the Question of Escalation

The key market question heading into Sunday evening centers on how Brent crude futures will price in the US strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island. President Trump warned on Friday that the United States could soon move against Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected Iranian nuclear facility, adding a further dimension of potential escalation.

Goldman Sachs commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and her team told clients on Wednesday that they had been forced to revise tanker-flow estimates sharply higher, a move signaling that Tehran's capacity to control the strategic maritime chokepoint has been significantly degraded. The team noted that Gulf oil exports had recovered to between 15 million and 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels. However, visible tanker data indicated flows of only about 10 million barrels per day on a seven-day moving average. Grigsby explained that the 5-million-barrel gap reflected what Goldman's energy team termed the "rise of dark transits" — tankers switching off their Automatic Identification System transponders to evade Iranian detection. The net reduction in Persian Gulf flows now stands at 7.9 million barrels per day.

On prediction markets, Polymarket odds that Tehran will lose control of Kharg Island stand at just 2 percent by September 30 and 7 percent by the end of the year.

Ultimately, the decision the Trump administration makes regarding Kharg Island remains what analysts describe as the energy market's billion-dollar question.